Among the most intriguing elections in Michigan this fall is a test of just how far a once reliably Democratic-leaning region around Flint, Bay City and Saginaw has shifted toward Republicans under the populism of former President Donald Trump.
Most political handicappers — the Cook Political Report in Washington and Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics among them — have the race between first-term state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, D-Bay City, and Republican Paul Junge, who is making his third attempt at winning a seat in Congress in six years, as a toss up.
That may undervalue somewhat the advantages McDonald Rivet and the Democrats could have, including the institutional support and popularity of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in the region, a slight Democratic lean that remains in the boundaries of Michigan’s 8th Congressional District and the expected enthusiasm in Flint and Saginaw, two cities with large Black populations, for the presidential candidacy of Vice President Kamala Harris, the first Black woman and first woman of South Asian descent to become a major party’s nominee.
Junge and the Republicans, on the other hand, are counting on some advantages of their own, namely that Harris remains something of an unknown quantity in a region where voters are still predominantly white and working class. Trump came within about 2 percentage points of winning within this district’s boundaries four years ago (and within about a point in 2016) on a populist message that Democrats haven’t delivered on promises to help voters in a district where county populations have dropped by 10% over the last decade or so.
Also, this year’s issue set — inflation and concerns over illegal immigration — is expected to play well in an old industrial region that has seen jobs move out over the decades, even though neither the current administration nor Trump’s can claim to have seen any notable gains in the labor force in Bay, Genesee, Midland and Saginaw counties, which make up most of the district. They have mostly continued to see declines, if anything. More recent state and federal investments in solar technology and semiconductor manufacturing are still too recent to have had much of a noticeable economic impact.
Then there is the fact that for the first time in 48 years a Democrat with the last name of Kildee won’t be on the ballot. Last November, U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee, of Flint Township, announced he’d step down after this, his sixth two-year term; Eleven years ago, Dan replaced his uncle, the late U.S. Rep. Dale Kildee of Flint, who won his first term in 1976.
“If it were a Kildee running, he would obviously win it,” said Ed Sarpolus, a pollster with Target Insyght in Lansing, noting the name recognition and dedication to constituent service the family has built up over decades. “The question now (for Republicans) is how well is Trump going to do in Bay County and (other more rural parts of the district). The question is do they show up or stay home on the Democratic side.”
Two different paths to their parties’ nominations
Neither McDonald Rivet nor Junge are exactly household names district-wide, certainly when compared to Kildee. McDonald Rivet, whose husband Joseph is a former state representative, began her quick political rise in 2019, when she was elected to the Bay City Commission. Three years later she won a hard-fought race for state senator in the newly drawn 35th District covering her hometown and Midland and Saginaw by beating state Rep. Annette Glenn.
Since joining the new Democratic majority in the Legislature, McDonald Rivet has been notably active, working to cut taxes on pensions and proposing plans to cut prescription drug and child care costs. A proposal to update Michigan’s gun storage laws was passed and signed into law. And she was part of the effort to protect abortion rights in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court overturning the guarantee provided by the 1973 Roe vs. Wade decision two years ago.
But McDonald Rivet is presenting herself as anything but a firebrand liberal. Instead, she describes herself as “infinitely pragmatic,” with a long history working toward policy results with Michigan Head Start and as chief of staff to the state Education Department before taking on high-ranking roles with the nonprofit Skillman Foundation and Greater Midland Inc.
“What I would say is I just view myself as a problem solver,” she said, noting that the issues that most concern her are the price of groceries, gas and pharmaceuticals, the availability of good-paying jobs in the district and improving education. She said she would also work to expand the child tax credit again.
She leans into being a mom, someone from a working-class background whose dad worked in construction (her twin sister is Oakland County Prosecutor Karen McDonald) and readily talks about kitchen-table issues of prices and economic hardship. “I have a 14-year-old at home right now who drinks two gallons of milk a week,” she said. “We have to care about the price of milk.”
In interviews, she is energetic and disciplined, staying on message. She can be cheeky in her campaign ads, including one in which she’s so determined to keep discussing cutting taxes for working families her husband comically rolls himself out of their car. She seems equally at home in a jean jacket as a suit jacket.
Asked about whether she would campaign with Harris, she demurred, not mentioning the vice president by name, and said she’s concentrating on her own race while still coordinating with Democrats generally. “Everybody’s going to do everything they can to make sure that we get every person who is willing to put up a Democratic vote to the polls,” she said.
She notes that despite the tossup nature of her state Senate district, she won by nearly 7 points.
She was also likely lifted in that state Senate election by Whitmer’s strong reelection showing over Republican Tudor Dixon, the popular abortion referendum that year and Democratic wins up and down Michigan’s ticket.
To become the Democratic nominee this August, she easily beat state Board of Education President Pamela Pugh of Saginaw and former Flint Mayor Matt Collier, with 53% of the vote in the Democratic primary. It didn’t hurt that she had already picked up endorsements from Whitmer, Kildee, Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson and several labor unions, including the UAW.
One of her main pitches is that she has lived in the district for a long time — her opponent moved into it before the 2022 election — and that she knows well its economic trials.
“This region in Michigan is losing population faster than any other region in the state. I have one of the oldest congressional districts in the country. So what you’ve got are people who feel ignored, who feel like neither party has listened to them, and they are watching the children move away. They’re watching their median income drop and they’re finding it really difficult to afford things that used to be easier when we had a number of good-paying union jobs here,” she said.
Junge says third time could be the charm
Junge’s trajectory had been different. Born in Michigan, his family moved west where his father ran a successful business providing military housing and support services. Junge went to law school, worked briefly as a deputy district attorney in California and then turned to broadcasting, including in Lansing, before heading to Washington, where he worked as a congressional staffer and, eventually, for the Department of Homeland Security while Trump was in office.
He ultimately returned to Michigan, moving to Brighton to run in 2020 against U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Holly, in the old 8th District, which was redrawn in 2021. (Slotkin now represents the 7th District in mid-Michigan; she’s stepping down to run for the U.S. Senate this year.) After losing by 4 percentage points (in a district Trump won that year), Junge moved to Grand Blanc, in the new 8th District, and challenged Kildee. In what would turn out to be a Democratic wave election in Michigan in 2022, Kildee won 53%-43%.
Few expected Junge to challenge Kildee again this year. But a day after Kildee dropped out, Junge announced he’d make his third run for Congress.
Junge was expected to face a game challenger for the GOP nomination, however, in former Dow Chemical executive Mary Draves, who was making her first run but had supporters in Washington. Junge poured money into attack ads, accusing Draves of being an ally of Whitmer’s, having been selected to be part of a state board; he also hit her for making donations to Democrats in the past and criticized her for praising Biden’s decision to rejoin the Paris climate accord, which Trump had abandoned. “A true blue liberal,” one ad called her.
The negative campaign — paid for in large part by Junge himself, who had inherited millions from his father — worked. Ahead of the Aug. 6 primary, Trump endorsed Junge; he won 75% to Draves’ 15%, and local businessman Anthony Hudson’s 10%. Beyond the ads and Trump’s backing, Junge had a few other things going for him, having built up some name recognition in the district in the 2022 race and gaining endorsements from a handful of GOP county commissioners in Bay County and Saginaw County.
Describing himself as a “hard-working, traditional conservative” who cast his first vote for president for Ronald Reagan in 1984, Junge comes across as chatty and politically savvy, with a good understanding of the ideological clefts in the district.
But he also understands that running for office can be a bare-knuckle affair. Regarding the barrage of ads that helped bring down Draves, he said, “I don’t apologize for these ads. I think voters have every right to know how candidates really actually vote.” And he plans to turn that fire squarely on McDonald Rivet.
In his ads, Junge presents himself as a no-nonsense battler, wearing a dress shirt with jeans, sleeves rolled up and railing against Washington elites. “Pro-Trump and proud of it,” the narrator exclaims in one ad.
“An open seat is a different type of competition than against a long-time incumbent,” Junge said, noting that McDonald Rivet has never represented any part of Genesee County, the most populous county in the 8th, where he lives.
He says he would continue to push for smaller government, less burdensome regulations on businesses and trade deals that would incentivize businesses moving back into the U.S. But he also has adopted, in some of his ads and elsewhere, the exaggerated rhetoric of Trump’s that an influx in illegal immigration has led to a spike in violent crime, which is actually down nationwide according to statistics, though there has been an increase in drug smuggling, especially involving fentanyl.
Junge says he runs into lots of Democrats in the district who tell him they have always voted for a Kildee for Congress but appreciate Trump’s agenda.
“I think Trump, deservedly so, is supported in this district. I think he’s going to carry Michigan 8,” he said. “And I think voters, because they see in me someone who would fight for their interests, they recognize, my having served in the Trump administration, I’m going to, broadly speaking, be supporting President Trump. I think that’s going to help me win this district.”
“If it were going any better, I’d already be elected to Congress,” he joked.
Candidates trade shots on abortion, immigration
There’s been no independent public polling done in the race that the Free Press could find. A Democratic firm, Global Strategy Group, said it was a virtual tie in a head-to-head survey done just before the Aug. 6 primary, with Junge leading McDonald Rivet 45%-44% ― well within the margin of error ― and 11% undecided.
Money-wise, as of the last report, covering the pre-primary period up to July 17, Junge’s campaign had banked $2.1 million, the vast majority of it loans he made himself, and had about $330,000 in cash on hand, though it’s likely he could loan himself as much as he needs. McDonald Rivet had raised $1.7 million, the vast majority of that from individual contributions, and had more than $800,000 in the bank. Outside money is near certain to rush in on both sides.
As Junge ramps up his ad attack on McDonald Rivet — calling her “dangerous” for Michigan and criticizing her for votes he characterizes as being soft on illegal immigration and drugs coming across the southern border, even though those votes were generally on GOP amendments to pieces of legislation that had nothing to do with either — she intends to use Junge’s wealth and newcomer status to the district against him.
As regards the border, McDonald Rivet said she wants a bipartisan immigration reform package that includes robust enforcement and cracks down on drug and sex traffickers while also providing a pathway to citizenship for those who immigrate legally. Prior to Biden administration rules put in place which have reduced illegal immigration significantly in recent months, she agreed that the previous surge in undocumented immigrants entering the U.S. was “not sustainable.”
Like Trump, Junge supports the construction of a border wall and while he didn’t specifically tout mass deportations, as Trump has, when speaking to the Free Press said he does believe people in the country illegally don’t have a right to remain. McDonald Rivet, on the other hand, argued that despite her own concerns over the border, her opponent is using “a lot of just extreme political rhetoric” on crime and on the border, “to try to get people to look the other way about somebody who doesn’t represent this district.”
Then, as with every other race this election cycle and last, there is the question of abortion. Junge, like Trump and many other Republicans, was a strong opponent of abortion rights but maintains now that, with the passage of the state referendum guaranteeing abortion rights, he would not support a national ban if one were proposed in Congress.
“You’ll have to excuse the raised eyebrow,” McDonald Rivet said. “Somebody who moved into my district to try to buy a congressional seat and two (actually four) years ago was calling abortion a made-up right? Who suddenly now is saying that he doesn’t believe that anymore? I think that women in particular are going to find that hard to believe.”
Junge, however, argues that this is not a new stance for him, that two years ago when he was running against Kildee he said he would respect what the voters of Michigan decided on what was called Prop 3. “I would have decided differently (on Prop 3). But the voters of Michigan have decided and I want to go and be their voice in Washington. I will not be extending any efforts to try to overturn what voters in Michigan want on that issue.”
In the end, voters for whom reproductive rights are an important issue will have to decide whether or not to believe Junge and other abortion opponents, who could still back federal policies that could curtail abortions, if not ban them outright. Meanwhile, it’s an open question whether abortion will be the motivating issue for voters it was two years ago in Michigan following the Supreme Court’s decision.
McDonald Rivet says the race will come down to her roots in the district.
“We’ve been working in this community and in this district for years, and the people here know me,” she said. “They know my record. They know what I can accomplish, versus a multimillionaire trust fund guy from California who is just a rubber stamp for an extreme MAGA (Make America Great Again) agenda. That’s what this race is about.”
Junge says it’s the Democratic record that’s failed this district and what he sees as his better name ID that gives him the edge.
“I see voters on a regular basis that are just saying, we’ve got to have change. This isn’t sustainable,” he said. “Lots of different reasons have caused voters to say Democrats just are not getting the job done and we’ve got to have something different.”
